Modelling the control of mosquito-borne diseases
in Ecology of parasite-vector interactionsSearch for other papers by Ace North in
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Search for other papers by Penelope Hancock in
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We focus on strategies for controlling the epidemiology of mosquito-borne diseases that target the mosquito vector. In order to assess a particular strategy of mosquito population control, two broad issues require attention: the dynamics of the population, and the impact of the intervention on those dynamics. We describe two modelling approaches that are important tools in these respective tasks. Firstly, backwards modelling, the method of using models to interpret complex data, is a valuable means to understanding mosquito ecology. We exemplify backwards modelling with a brief review of research into how larval competition impacts on mosquito population dynamics, an important question to answer given that this density dependent process may significantly interact with some intervention strategies. Secondly, forwards modelling, whereby models are used to forecast the outcome of interacting ecological processes, allows ecological knowledge to be utilised so that the impacts of a particular strategy can be predicted. In particular, forward models allow investigation of how the performance of strategies may vary across different ecological settings. We exemplify forward modelling with an illustrative model of how climatic temperature may influence the effectiveness of a fungal biopesticide intervention. We end the chapter with a brief discussion on important future directions.