Tick-borne encephalitis in Europe: dynamics of changing risk

Sarah E. Randolph; Dana Šumilo

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Tick-borne encephalitis in Europe: dynamics of changing risk

in Emerging pests and vector-borne diseases in Europe

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Sarah E. Randolph

Sarah E. Randolph
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Dana Šumilo

Dana Šumilo
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Art:: Kapitel

Seiten:: 185–206

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.3920/9789086866267_013

Angemeldet über:

Dar Hadith al Hassania

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Across Europe, tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) shows significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity in changing incidence over the past 3-4 decades, and offers a perfect case study of the diverse impact of humans, both direct and indirect, on zoonotic risk. Attention is focused on the two sides of the zoonotic coin, transmission potential via enzootic cycles and exposure of humans to infection. With few exceptions, patterns of change are unrelentingly upwards, nowhere more dramatically so than in the Eastern European countries coincident with independence from Soviet rule. Also, where endemic risk areas have historically been more patchily distributed in western Europe, new foci have appeared since 2000. The environmental conditions in new and older foci can be compared using new generation satellite imagery in predictive risk mapping. When TBE epidemiology and climate were analysed at sufficiently fine spatial and temporal resolution in the Baltic States, it was clear that, although a step increase in spring temperatures occurred in 1989 that could promote the transmission of TBE virus between co-feeding ticks, the changes in climate were too uniform over this geographical region to explain the spatio-temporal heterogeneity in TBE upsurges. Data support the notion that other environmental changes associated with political upheaval could also have promoted increasingly robust enzootic cycles of TBE virus, while socioeconomic transition would have created conditions likely to increase human exposure to ticks to a greater or lesser extent. Demographic and socio-economic factors associated with individual risk are consistent with this. Furthermore, in many parts of the Baltic countries, there were spatially variable decreases in incidence since 1999 that were too great to be accounted for by the recorded rates of vaccination, but significantly correlated with previous incidence. This suggests human responses to risk perception, quite possibly involving changes in behaviour associated with visits to tick-infested forests, as have indeed been reported in health surveys.

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Emerging pests and vector-borne diseases in Europe

Reihe: Ecology and Control of Vector-borne Diseases, Band: 1

ISBN:: 9789086866267

Verleger:: Wageningen Academic

Print-Publikationsdatum:: 24 Oct 2007

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Tick-borne encephalitis in Europe: dynamics of changing risk

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Emerging pests and vector-borne diseases in Europe

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