Modelling of vector-borne diseases and transmission of bluetongue virus in North-West Europe

Aline A. de Koeijer; Armin R.W. Elbers

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Modelling of vector-borne diseases and transmission of bluetongue virus in North-West Europe

in Emerging pests and vector-borne diseases in Europe

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Aline A. de Koeijer

Aline A. de Koeijer
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Armin R.W. Elbers

Armin R.W. Elbers
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Art:: Kapitel

Seiten:: 97–112

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.3920/9789086866267_008

Angemeldet über:

Dar Hadith al Hassania

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In 2006, Northwest Europe was surprised by an extreme heat wave in July and following that, the detection of blue tongue virus, an infection that was thought not to spread under the Northwest European climatic conditions. The clinical pattern and the mortality among sheep, one of the main hosts of the infection, also differed from the commonly accepted pattern of Blue tongue disease. We describe the diagnosis of this disease and the epidemic progress in 2006 with a lot of details on the clinical pattern of the disease. During 2006, there were few good measures to control spread of the infection. Retrospectively, only the regulations on animal transport were considered to be valuable in limiting the spread of the infection to other areas. Regulations to limit the contact between the vector and the host were considered less effective, partly because they were based on the wrong assumption that Culicoides species which transmit the infection are active in twilight and in the dark. At the time, there was also no good vaccine available. Thus, the options for control were limited at the time. With an increasing knowledge on the Culicoides and newly developed vaccines, there is more interest in analysing their efficacy and their efficiency in cost-benefit terms. This can best be done using models of the transmission of the infections, first to assess the 2006 epidemic and subsequently adjusting the parameters to assess various control measures. A model that uses the basic reproduction ratio as the main measure to determine the control and risk level of the epidemic is explained. Temperature is assumed to be one of the major drivers of the Blue Tongue Virus (BTV) epidemic, so this aspect is specifically addressed. Although little is known on the exact temperature effect on the various model parameters, some basic assumptions are applied, which are mainly based on the knowledge of BTV transmission by a tropical Culicoides species. The analysis shows that in the temperature range between 15 and 25 °C the reproduction ratio increases very fast, from a ‘no risk’ to a ‘very high risk’ situation. This is a good indication of the order of magnitude at which the temperature can affect the transmission, but should not be considered as exact results, given the nature of the underlying parameter estimates. The second extremely important driver of BTV epidemics is vector abundance. This is thought to depend heavily on temperature and humidity over a longer time period, but the life history parameters of the relevant Culicoides species are never quantified, which means that this abundance can only be quantified from insect traps, and extrapolation from those. When more is known on the vector, the present model can be extended with the population dynamics of the vector, which should lead to a much more complete picture of when and where BTV epidemics can be expected, and which control measures should be applied to prevent or restrict these.

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Emerging pests and vector-borne diseases in Europe

Reihe: Ecology and Control of Vector-borne Diseases, Band: 1

ISBN:: 9789086866267

Verleger:: Wageningen Academic

Print-Publikationsdatum:: 24 Oct 2007

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Modelling of vector-borne diseases and transmission of bluetongue virus in North-West Europe

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Emerging pests and vector-borne diseases in Europe

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