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Brazilian farmer confidence in business performance

In: International Food and Agribusiness Management Review
Authors:
Caetano Haberli Júnior Researcher, University of São Paulo (USP), Guarujá Street 240, Vinhedo, SP, CEP 13287-154, Brazil.

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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7335-9896
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Eduardo Eugênio Spers Professor, University of São Paulo (USP), Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture (ESALQ), Departament Economics, Administration and Sociology (LES), Pádua Dias Avenue 11, Piracicaba / SP, CEP 13418-900, Brazil.

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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8057-3460
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Lilian Maluf de Lima Professor, University of São Paulo (USP), Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture (ESALQ), Departament Economics, Administration and Sociology (LES), Pádua Dias Avenue 11, Piracicaba / SP, CEP 13418-900, Brazil.

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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2256-7302
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Débora da Costa Simões Researcher, University of São Paulo (USP), Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture (ESALQ), Departament Economics, Administration and Sociology (LES), Pádua Dias Avenue 11, Piracicaba / SP, CEP 13418-900, Brazil.

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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5322-8565
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Marcos Fava Neves Professor, University of São Paulo (USP), FEARP School of Business, Bandeirantes Avenue 3900, Ribeirão Preto / SP, CEP 14040-900, Brazil.

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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5693-7543

The aim of this article is to understand how rural producers in Brazil generate their investment expectations in terms of their costs, productivity, and other macroeconomic variables related to agricultural production. This study contributes to the formulation of more efficient public policies that take into account not only market information, but also the expectations of farmers. Based on data from a survey that calculates the rural producer confidence index in Brazil, non-parametric tests were performed to assess the equality of responses attributed by them in different periods, configured as crop development and harvest start, during 2014 and 2017. The results indicate that the farmer’s behavior is sensitive to changes in the market and his business. Productivity is seen as a long-term expectation. The cost of production and the sale price have generated short and medium-term expectations.

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