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Prospective Tariff-Reduction Scenarios under AfCFTA and Moroccan Outward FDI to Africa

In: Africa Review
Author:
Jihad Ait Soussane Groupe ISCAE Casablanca Morocco

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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1113-4835
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Abstract

This study provides an ex-ante (prospective) analysis of how tariff barriers are associated with Moroccan outward foreign direct investment (FDI) to 28 African countries over the period 2007–2020 under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) scenario. We estimate tariff-FDI elasticities based on effectively applied weighted average tariffs and interpret patterns using the knowledge–capital framework. The results indicate that Moroccan outward FDI is mainly market-seeking: higher host-country tariffs on Moroccan final goods are associated with higher FDI, consistent with tariff-jumping. Tariff liberalisation may shift activity towards exports. Morocco should strengthen export competitiveness, and host countries should promote local linkages, skills and competition to maximise spillovers.

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