Shanna Kirschner, Trust and Fear in Civil Wars: Ending Intrastate Conflicts, Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield, 2015, 189 pp., (ISBN: 978-0-7391-9641-0).
Worries about future security extend civil wars (p. 15). This is Shanna Kirschner’s main conclusion in the book Trust and Fear in Civil Wars: Ending Intrastate Conflicts. Kirschner, an assistant professor of Political Science and International Studies, wonders why some civil wars continue for lengthy periods, while others end rather quickly (p. 1). She argues that trust is a key factor to cease hostilities in a civil war (p. 2). For adversaries to stop fighting they need to have trust in their adversaries that they will no longer be a threat to future security. The level of trust relies on the perception about the adversary, which is based upon the available information about those adversaries. The trust or fear appears in two forms. First, actors in civil wars will hold doubts on whether the other side will remain committed to a peace agreement as soon as the circumstances change. Second, the actors will fear the possible consequences of a failing peace agreement. Consequentially, adversaries in civil wars will continue the conflict if they assess that fighting is a better option for their own future security than an uncertain peace agreement (pp. 3–4).
The structure of the book is straightforward. Chapter 1 of the book introduces the main argument and explains the relevance of the subject. The second chapter first elaborates on the concepts of trust and fear. Then it discusses the three underlying assumptions: Combatants try to settle conflict, they prefer conflict to an uncertain future security, and interactions provide the information on which the calculations are based (pp. 22–23). Finally, chapter 2 mentions the hypotheses used. The hypotheses focus on the independent variables that influence the perceptions about adversaries: Presence of previous conflicts, atrocities (both in general and early during conflict), discrimination, and identifiability (i.e. how distinctive members of a group are compared to members of other groups). Presence of each of these independent variables increases the duration of conflict (pp. 23–30). The hypotheses are tested in chapters 3 to 6. Chapter 3 uses a quantitative analysis based upon a final dataset of 128 civil wars from 1945 to 2008. Chapter 4 deals with a secondary source based comparative case study of two civil wars in Sri Lanka. Chapters 5 and 6 also contain case studies, civil wars in Turkey and Cyprus respectively. These case studies are based upon analyses of secondary sources and semistructured interviews among the adversaries. The final chapter draws the conclusions and links these to policy implications and further avenues for research.
From a Kurdish Studies perspective chapter 5 is of special interest. It focuses on the conflict between the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan, PKK) and Turkey. Kirschner finds that within this conflict “all four of the independent variables – historical conflict, discrimination, atrocities, and identifiability – affect how both Kurds and non-Kurdish Turks perceive each other and how they weigh the relative costs of ending the war when compared to fighting on” (p. 99). Turks seem reluctant to grant Kurds greater rights, fearing these will eventually lead to fragmentation of the Turkish state. Many are especially suspicious because of PKK attacks in the past and see dissolvement of the Kurdish nationalist movement as the only guarantee for their future security. Kurds do not trust Turkey due to discrimination experienced in the past. Presence of all four factors that increase the duration of civil wars explains the longevity of conflict between PKK and Turkey.
Adding the concepts trust and fear contributes to the field of Conflict Studies. Linking trust and fear to perceptions of future security contributes to understanding behaviour of individuals and groups in conflict situations. This is reminiscent of Maslow’s model on what motivates individuals. Primary needs are basic human needs necessary for survival, such as food, sex, shelter, and sleep. As soon as the primary needs are sufficiently fulfilled, the secondary needs of safety and security become important motivators, eventually leading to what is known as self-actualisation.1 Keeping this process in mind, the theory explored in the book has the potential of better understanding other conflicts than civil wars alone, as Kirschner already recognises (p. 156). Studies that address topics that touch upon civil war could benefit from the new insights in explaining observations from quantitative analysis or case studies.2
However, the book lacks a clear explanation on how individuals’ fear translates into group behaviour. Therefore, the link between the group-level quantitative analysis and the individual-level qualitative analysis (p. 10) remains rather vague. Models from Social Movement Theory that study political mobilisation and describe the dynamics between individuals and groups might help to improve the theory. Because the role of perception about the adversary is so important in Kirschner’s theory, the Social Movement Theory of framing might be a relevant aspect. Framing deals with how a group tries to influence individuals in order to gain support for the group’s cause.3 In addition, Kirschner argues “[a]lthough elite and popular actors have different interests and make different calculations […], the basic decision-making processes […] are the same, regardless of one’s social or political position” (pp. 21–22). This is undoubtedly true. But arguably, in the end the calculation of adversaries’ elite-members might be more relevant as these are the people who actually make the decisions. Public support for the elite’s decisions contributes to success, for example by decreasing the possibility of splintering or spoilers.4
Kirschner’s theory has the potential of being more broadly applied, which makes the book a worthwhile read. This makes the book more relevant for the field of Conflict Studies than for the field of Kurdish Studies, as it is intended to be. Current conflicts such as in the Middle East, northern Africa and Ukraine show the obvious relevance of the theory. The quantitative analysis forms an interesting foundation to build future case studies from. The chapters containing case studies offer insights into the conflicts studied with the focus on trust and fear. Understandably, these chapters will offer little new knowledge to area experts apart from these insights. The case studies are introduced in a general fashion to provide the context in which the findings of the interviews can be positioned. The findings from these semi-structured interviews do invite other scholars to conduct comparative research using the same hypotheses.
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