Inference Towards the Best Explanation: Reflections on the Issue of Climate Change
In: Israel Journal of Ecology and EvolutionSearch for other papers by Robert D. Holt in
Current site
Google Scholar
Science is an organized enterprise of inquiry which tries to tie together multiple strands of evidence to craft coherent explanations for disparate patterns in the natural world. Philosophers call this enterprise “inference towards the best explanation”. Such inferences at times depend upon detailed quantitative models, but at times one can rely upon the confluence of multiple strands of qualitative evidence. Humans are having unquestionable influences upon many aspects of the earth system at present, on land, in freshwater systems, and indeed the ocean, including devastating impacts on biodiversity. There are many patterns in the world at present – shrinking glaciers, shifting seasonal patterns in species’ life histories, and altered spatial distributions – which point to the signal of climate change, independent of the details of quantitative climate models. Yet, there are many other factors at play, often confounding clear assessment of the specific role of climate change in observed changes in the world. A deeper synoptic understanding of the drivers and impacts of climate change would be incredibly valuable and is urgently needed, even if in the end (though this seems increasingly unlikely) anthropogenic drivers were not the main factor underlying observed climate change.
Purchase
Buy instant access (PDF download and unlimited online access):
Institutional Login
Log in with Open Athens, Shibboleth, or your institutional credentials
Personal login
Log in with your brill.com account
-
Ackerman D.2014. The human age: the world shaped by us. New York (NY): Taylor & Francis.
-
Althaus F, , Williams A, , Schlacher TA, , Kloser RJ, , Green MA, , Barker BA, , Bax NJ, , Brodie P, , Schlacher-Hoenlinger MA. 2009. Impacts of bottom trawling on deep-coral ecosystems of seamounts are long-lasting. Marine Ecol Prog Ser. 307:279–294.
-
Angilletta, J.R., Jr. 2009. Thermal adaptation: a theoretical and empirical synthesis. Oxford (UK): Oxford University Press.
-
Bailey JK.2014. Incorporating eco-evolutionary dynamics into global change research. Functional Ecol. 28:3–4.
-
Ball P.2013. How science became interested in everything. Chicago (IL): Taylor & Francis.
-
Barton NH., 2001. Adaptations at the edge of a species’ range. In: Silvertown J, , Antonovics J, editors. Integrating ecology and evolution in a spatial context. London: Taylor & Francis. p.365–392.
-
Bender ML.2013. Paleoclimate. Princeton (NJ): Taylor & Francis.
-
Bobbink R, , Hicks K, , Galloway J, , Spranger T, , Alkemade R, , Ashmore M, , Bustamante M, , Cinderby S, , Davidson E, , Emmett B, , Erisman J-W, , Fenn M, , Gilliam F, , Nordin A, , Pardo L, , De Vries W. 2010. Global assessment of nitrogen deposition effects on terrestrial plant diversity: A synthesis. Ecological Appl. 20:30–39.
-
Bond WJ, , Parr CL. 2010. Beyond the forest edge: ecology, diversity and conservation of the grassy biomes. Biol Conservation. 143:2395–2404.
-
Bridle JR, , Polechova J, , Kawata M, , Butlin RK. 2010. Why is adaptation prevented at ecological margins? New insights from individual-based simulations. Ecol Lett. 13:485–494.
-
Burnham J., editor. 2013. Q4 2013 Market Index. Available from: http://www.horizonmarinecenter.com/sell-a-boat//wp-content/uploads/2014/02/YW-US-Q4-Market-Index-v3.pdf.
-
Burnham KP, , Anderson DR. 2002. Model selection and multimodel inference: a practical information-theoretic approach. 2nd ed. New York (NY): Taylor & Francis.
-
Byers W.2011. The blind spot: science and the crisis of uncertainty. Princeton (NJ): Taylor & Francis.
-
Case TJ, , Holt RD, , McPeek M, , Keitt TH. 2005. The community context of species' borders: ecological and evolutionary perspectives. Oikos. 108:28–46.
-
Chen I-C, , Hill JK, , Ohlemuller R, , Roy DB, , Thomas CD. 2011. Rapid range shifts of species associate with high levels of climate warming. Science. 333:1024–1026.
-
Chinn TJ, , Kargel JS, , Leonard GJ, , Haritashya UK, , and Pleasants M, . 2014. New Zealand's glaciers. In: Kargel JS, , Leonard GJ, , Bishop MP, , Kääb A, , Raup BH, editors. Global land ice measurements from space. Berlin: Taylor & Francis; p. 675–742.
-
Coll M, , Libralato S, , Tudela S, , Palomera I, , Pranovi F. 2008. Ecosystem overfishing in the ocean. PLoS One. DOI:
-
Conservational International. 2011. Available from: http://www.conservation.org/NewsRoom/pressreleases/Pages/The-Worlds-10-Most-Threatened-Forest-Hotspots.aspx
-
Crawford RMM.2008. Plants at the margin: ecological limits and climate change. Cambridge (UK): Taylor & Francis. 494 pp.
-
Crutzen PJ.2002. Geology of mankind. Nature. 415:23.
-
Crutzen PJ, , Stoermer EF. 2000. The ‘Anthropocene’. IGBP Newsletter. 41:17–18
-
Darwin C.1859 (2011). The annotated origin: a facsimile of the first edition of on the origin of species: introduction and notes by Costa JT. Cambridge (MA): Taylor & Francis.
-
Diamond J.2014. Birds and grapes on mountaintops. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 111:4349–4350.
-
Doak DF, , Morris WF. 2010. Demographic compensation and tipping points in climate-induced range shifts. Nature. 467:959–962.
-
Donato DC.2013. Limits to upward movement of subalpine forests in a warming climate. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 110:7971–7972.
-
Elmendorf SC, , Henry GHR, , Hollister RD, Björk RG, Boulanger-Lapointe N, Cooper EJ, Cornelissen JHC, Day TA, Dorrepaal E, Elumeeva TG. et al.2012. Plot-scale evidence of tundra vegetation change and links to recent summer warming. Nat Clim Change. 2:453–457.
-
Energy. 2014. Fact #835 datasheet. Available from: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-835-august-25-average-historical-annual-gasoline-pump-price-1929-2013
-
Environmental Protection Agency 2014. Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Available from: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/pdfs/print_ghg-concentrations-2014.pdf
-
Ettinger AK, , Ford KR, , Lambers HR. 2011. Climate determines upper, but not lower, altitudinal range limits of Pacific Northwest conifers. Ecology. 92:1323–1331.
-
Ewens WJ.2013. Mathematics, genetics and evolution. Quantitative Biol. 1:9–31.
-
Faaborg J, , Arendt WJ, , Toms JD, , Dugger KM, , Cox WA, , Canals Mora M. 2013. Long-term decline of a winter resident bird community in Puerto Rico. Biodiversity Conservation. 22:63–75.
-
Filin I, , Holt RD, , Barfield M. 2008. The relation of density regulation to habitat specialization, evolution of a species' range, and the dynamics of biological regulation. Am Naturalist. 172:233–247.
-
Freeman BG, , Freeman AMC. 2014. Rapid upslope shifts in New Guinean birds illustrate strong distributional responses of tropical montane species to global warming. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 111:4490–4494.
-
Futuyma DJ2013. Evolution. 3rd ed. Sunderland (MA): Taylor & Francis.
-
Gaston KJ.2003. The structure and dynamics of geographic ranges. Oxford (UK): Taylor & Francis.
-
Gillooly JF, , Brown JH, , West GB, , Savage VM, , Charnov EL. 2001. Effects of size and temperature on metabolic rate. Science. 293:2248–2251.
-
Gomulkiewicz R, , Holt RD, , Barfield M. 1999. The effects of density dependence and immigration on local adaptation in a black-hole sink environment. Theor Popul Biol. 55:283–296.
-
Grytnes J-A, , Kapfer J, , Jurasinski G, , Birks H, , Henriksen H, , Klanderud K, , Odlund A, , Ohlson M, , Wipi S, , Birks HJB. 2014. Identifying the driving factors behind observed elevational range shifts on European mountains. Global Ecol Biogeography. 23:876–884. DOI:
-
Guardian. 2014. Available from: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/29/new-zealands-dramatic-ice-loss-could-lead-to-severe-decline-of-glaciers
-
Haberl H, , Erb K-H, , Krausmann F. 2014. Human appropriation of net primary production: patterns, trends, and planetary boundaries. Annu Rev Environ Resour. 39:363–391.
-
Hallmann CA, , Foppen RPB, , van Tunhout CAM, , de Kroon H, , Jongejans E. 2014. Declines in insectivorous birds are associated with high neonicotinoid concentrations. Nature. 511:341–343.
-
Harman G.1965. The inference to the best explanation. Philosophical Rev. 74:88–95.
-
Hilborn R, , Mangel M. 1997. The ecological detective: confronting models with data. Princeton (NJ ): Taylor & Francis.
-
Hoekstra AY, , Wiedmann TO. 2014. Humanity's unsustainable environmental footprint. Science. 344:1114–1117.
-
Holt RD, , Keitt T, , Lewis M, , Maure B, , Taper M. 2005. Theoretical models of species' borders: single species approaches. Oikos. 108:18–27.
-
Inger R, , Gregory R, , Duffy JP, , Stott I, , Vorisek P, , Gaston KJ. 2014. Common European birds are declining rapidly while less abundant species' numbers are rising. Ecol Lett. 18:28–36.
-
IPCC] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2014. Available from: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_LONGERREPORT.pdf
-
Ivanov V, , Watanabe E. 2013. Does arctic sea ice reduction foster shelf-basin exchange? Ecological Appl. 23:1765–1778.
-
JeNova. 2009. Available from: http://joannenova.com.au/2009/07/massive-climate-funding-exposed
-
Job J, , Bednekoff PA. 2011. Wrens on the edge: feeders predict Carolina wren Thryothoruslucovicianus abundance at the northern edge of their range. J Avian Biol. 42:16–21.
-
Jose S, , Jokela EJ, , Miller DL, . 2006. The longleaf pine ecosystem: an overview. In: Jose S, , Jokela EJ, , Miller DL, editors. The longlead pine ecosystem: ecology, silviculture, and restoration, Berlin: Taylor & Francis; p. 3–8
-
Jump AS, , Mátyáa C, , Peñuelas J. 2009. The altitude-for-latitude disparity in the range retractions of woody species. Trends Ecol Evol. 24:694–701.
-
Kapfer J, , Virtanen R, , Grytnes J-A. 2012. Changes in arctic vegetation on Jan Mayen Island over 19 and 80 years. J Vegetation Sci. 23:771–781.
-
Kirkpatrick M, , Barton NH. 1997. Evolution of a species' range. Am Naturalist. 159:576–596.
-
Kissinger H.2015. Testimony to congress. Available from: www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Kissinger_01-29-15.pdf
-
Kolbert E.2014. The sixth extinction: an unnatural history. New York (NY): Taylor & Francis
-
Koonin SE.2014. Sept. 19. Climate science is not settled. Wall Street J. Section C:1–2.
-
Leggett JA, , Lattanzio RK, , Bruner E. 2013. Federal climate change funding form FY2008 to FY2014. (Congressional Research Service Report 7-5700). Available from: www.crs.gos.
-
Lindroos M.2004. The artemis project website. Available from: http://www.asi.org/adb/m/02/07/apollo-cost.html
-
Mack MC, , Bret-Harte MS, , Hollingsworth TN, Jandt RR, Schuur EA, Shaver GR, Verbyla DL. et al.2011. Carbon loss from an unprecedented Arctic tundra wildfire. Nature. 475:489–492.
-
Marton-Lefèvre J.2014. Planet at the crossroads. Science. 346:525.
-
Marzeion B, , Cogley JG, , Richter K, , Parkes D. 2014. Attribution of global glacier mass loss to anthropogenic and natural causes. Science. 345:919–921.
-
Matías L, , Jump AS. 2012. Interactions between growth, demography and biotic interactions in determining species range limits in a warming world: the case of Pinussylvestris. Forest Ecol Manag. 282:10–22.
-
Mayr E.1963. Animal species and evolution. Cambridge (MA): Taylor & Francis.
-
McCauley DJ, , Pinsky ML, , Palumbi SR, , Estes JA, , Joyce FH, , Warner RR. 2015. Marine defaunation: animal loss in the global ocean. Science 347:1255641. DOI:
-
Menendez R, , Gonzalez-Megias A, , Jay-Robert P, , Marquez-Ferrando R. 2014. Climate change and elevational range shifts: evidence from dung beetles in two European mountain ranges. Global Ecol Biogeography. 23:646–657.
-
Moon S-M.1983. Available from: www.tparents.org/Moon-Books/SunMyungMoon-Csg/CSG-12-01-01.htm
-
Niiniluoto I.1999. Defending abduction. Philos Sci. 66(Supplement):S436–S451.
-
Nilsson C, , Reidy CA, , Dynesius M, , Revenga C. 2005. Fragmentation and flow regulation of the world's large river systems. Science. 308:405–408.
-
Nordhaus WD, , Zenghelis D, , Sullivan L. 2008. The question of global warming: an exchange. New York (NY): The New York Review of Books.
-
Noss RF.2012. Forgotten grasslands of the South: natural history and conservation. Washington (DC ): Taylor & Francis.
-
Ojaveer E, , Lehtonen H. 2001. Fish stocks in the Baltic Sea: finite or infinite resource? AMBIO. 30:217–221.
-
Ovaskainen O, , Skorokhodova S, , Yakovleva M, , Sukhov A, , Kutenkov A, , Kutenkova N, , Shcherbakov A, , Meyke E, , del Mar Delgado M. 2013. Community-level phenological response to climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 110:13434–13439. DOI:
-
Parmesan C.2006. Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst. 37:637–696.
-
Pearson R.2011. Driven to extinction: the impact of climate change on biodiversity. New York (NY ): Taylor & Francis.
-
Pearson RG, , Phillips SJ, , Loranty MM, , Beck PSA, , Damoulas T, , Knight SJ, , Goetz SJ. 2013. Shifts in Arctic vegetation and associated feedbacks under climate change. Nature Climate Change. 3:673–677.
-
Pelto M. 2014. Available from: http://glacierchange.wordpress.com/
-
Philander SG.1998. Is the temperature rising? The uncertain science of global warming. Princeton (NJ): Taylor & Francis.
-
Pickett STA, , Kolasa J, , Jones CG. 2007. Ecological understanding: the nature of theory and the theory of nature. Burlington (MA): Taylor & Francis.
-
Pierrehumbert RT.2005. Tropical glacial retreat. Available from: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=157
-
Pierrehumbert RT.2011. Principles of planetary climate. Cambridge (UK): Taylor & Francis.
-
Pimm SL, , Jenkins CN, , Abell R, , Brooks TM, , Gittleman JL, , Joppa LN, , Raven PH, , Roberts CM, , Sexton JO. 2014. The biodiversity of species and their rates of extinction, distribution, and protection. Science. 344:1246752. DOI:.
-
Platt JR.1964. Strong inference: certain systematic methods of scientific thinking may produce much more rapid progress than others. Science 146:347–353.
-
Post E.2013. Ecology of climate change: the importance of biotic interactions. Princeton (NJ): Taylor & Francis.
-
Primack RB.2014. Walden warming: climate change comes to Walden woods. Chicago (IL): Taylor & Francis.
-
Princé K, , Zuckerberg B. 2014. Climate change in our backyards: the reshuffling of North America's winter bird communities. Global Change Biol. 21: 572–585.
-
Pütz S, , Groeneveld J, , Henle K, , Knogg C, , Martensen AC, , Metz M, , Metzger JP, , Ribeiro MC, , Dantas de Paula M, , Huth A. 2014. Long-term carbon loss in fragmented Neotropical forests. Nat Comm. 5:5037. DOI:.
-
Qiu J.2014. Double threat for Tibet. Nature. 512:240–241.
-
Raxworthy CJ, , Pearson RG, , Rabibisosa N, Rakotondrazafy AM, Ramanamanjato J-B, Raselimanana AP, Wu S, Nussbaum RA, Stones DA. et al.2008. Extinction vulnerability of tropical montane endemism from warming and upslope displacement: a preliminary appraisal for the highest massif in Madagascar. Global Change Biol. 14:1703–1720.
-
Reuman DC, , Holt RD, , Yvon-Durocher G. 2014. A metabolic perspective on competition and body size reductions with warming. J Anim Ecol. 83:59–69.
-
Roberts JM, , Wheeler AJ, , Freiwald A. 2006. Reefs of the deep: the biology and geology and cold-water coral ecosystems. Science. 312:543–547.
-
Root TL, , Price JT, , Hall KR, , Schneider SR, , Rosenzweig C, , Pounds JA. 2003. Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature. 421:57–60.
-
Rosenzweig C, , Karoly D, , Vicarelli M, , Neofotis P, , Wu Q, , Casassa G, , Menzel A, , Root TL, , Estrella N, , Seguin B, , Tryjanowski P, , Liu C, , Rawlins S, , Imeson A. 2008. Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change. Nature. 453:353–358.
-
Rosenzweig ML, , Abramsky Z. 1997. Two gerbils of the Negev: a long-term investigation of optimal habitat selection and its consequences. Evol Ecol. 11:733–756.
-
Scheiner SM., 2004. Experiments, observations, and other kinds of evidence. In: Taper ML, and Lele SR, editors. The nature of scientific evidence: statistical, philosophical and empirical considerations. Chicago (IL): Taylor & Francis; p. 51–65.
-
Sexton JP, , McIntyre PJ, , Angert AL, , Rice KJ. 2009. Evolution and ecology of species range limits. Ann Rev Ecol Evol System. 40:415–436.
-
Shah N.2013. World military spending. Available from: http://www.globalissues.org/article/75/world-military-spending
-
SIPRI. 2014. Stockholm international peace research institute. Available from: www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/milex_database
-
Smith AC, , Frances CM. editors. 2012. The state of Canada's birds, 2012. Canada: Taylor & Francis.
-
Sundar A.2013. Caffeinonomics 1: pricing a cup of Starbucks' coffee. Available from: http://consumeronomics.anoj.net/2013/09/caffeinonomics-1-pricing-cup-of.
-
Telwala Y, , Brook BW, , Manish K, , Pandit MK. 2013. Climate-induced elevational range shifts and increase in plant species richness in a Himalayan biodiversity epicenter. PLoS One. 8:e57103.
-
The Economist. 2014. Governing the high seas. Available from: http://www.economist.com/news/international/21596990-humans-are-damaging-high-seas-now-oceans-are-doing-harm-back-deep-water
-
Thompson JN.2013. Relentless evolution. Chicago (IL): Taylor & Francis.
-
USGCRP. 2014. U.S. global climate research program budget. Available from: http://www.globalchange.gov/about/budget
-
Victor DG, , Kennel CF. 2014. Climate policy: ditch the 2̊C warming goal. Nature. 514:30–31.
-
Vitousek PM, , Mooney HA, , Lubchenco J, , Mellilo JM. 1997. Human domination of Earth's ecosystems. Science. 277:494–499.
-
Weart SR.2003. The discovery of global warming. Cambridge (MA): Taylor & Francis.
-
Weed AS, , Ayres MP, , Hicke JA. 2013. Consequences of climate change for biotic disturbances in North American forests. Ecological Monogr. 83:441–470.
-
Wines M.2014. Climate change threatens to strip the identity of Glacier National Park. New York (NY): The New York Times.
-
World Wildlife Fund, 2014. Living planet report 2014. Available from: http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/all_publications/living_planet_report/
-
Zhu K, , Woodall CW, , Clark JS. 2012. Failure to migrate: lack of tree range expansion in response to climate change. Global Change Biol. 18:1042–1052.
| All Time | Past 365 days | Past 30 Days | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abstract Views | 279 | 38 | 6 |
| Full Text Views | 20 | 0 | 0 |
| PDF Views & Downloads | 21 | 0 | 0 |
Inference Towards the Best Explanation: Reflections on the Issue of Climate Change
In: Israel Journal of Ecology and EvolutionSearch for other papers by Robert D. Holt in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Science is an organized enterprise of inquiry which tries to tie together multiple strands of evidence to craft coherent explanations for disparate patterns in the natural world. Philosophers call this enterprise “inference towards the best explanation”. Such inferences at times depend upon detailed quantitative models, but at times one can rely upon the confluence of multiple strands of qualitative evidence. Humans are having unquestionable influences upon many aspects of the earth system at present, on land, in freshwater systems, and indeed the ocean, including devastating impacts on biodiversity. There are many patterns in the world at present – shrinking glaciers, shifting seasonal patterns in species’ life histories, and altered spatial distributions – which point to the signal of climate change, independent of the details of quantitative climate models. Yet, there are many other factors at play, often confounding clear assessment of the specific role of climate change in observed changes in the world. A deeper synoptic understanding of the drivers and impacts of climate change would be incredibly valuable and is urgently needed, even if in the end (though this seems increasingly unlikely) anthropogenic drivers were not the main factor underlying observed climate change.
| All Time | Past 365 days | Past 30 Days | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abstract Views | 279 | 38 | 6 |
| Full Text Views | 20 | 0 | 0 |
| PDF Views & Downloads | 21 | 0 | 0 |
